As offresh
2026-10-24 06:00Z
1h 14m old · scored 2026-10-24 06:50Z
model rules_v0.1.0 · features 0.1.0
MarketMode
Explainable market-regime decision support. Every number below was published by a scoring run and is read, never recomputed.
Market Stress
72.9
Higher is more risk-hostile.
Buy Window
26.9
Higher is a better setup for adding risk. Not the complement of MSI.
RegimeR5
Credit Stress
49% confidence
Hysteresis carried Credit Stress from 2026-10-24 05:00Z
Fragility
not available
not computed by this model version: the baseline's fragility factors are concentration, equal-weight divergence, breadth and options positioning, and none of them is ingested. A score built from the one or two available proxies would be a different measure wearing the name. ADR-0013 does not unlock these: it settled which vendor to use for prices, while these factors need constituent-level and options data no free tier publishes.
Data Health
100%
How much of the model's own input was present and fresh at this instant. It is the mean of the two per-composite confidences — MSI and BWS are each discounted towards neutral by their own, so this cannot be inverted to recover a raw component score.
Why Market Stress reads 72.9
Every row below is part of the published score: they sum to it exactly. Components that could not be computed are kept and marked rather than dropped. Inputs is how far behind that component's most lagging input was at 2026-10-24 06:00Z — as recorded when the score was published, not as measured now. A row that recorded none says so; it is never shown as fresh.
| Component | Weight | Score | Points | Inputs | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
rates raises stress | Weight0.24 | Score76.1 | Points+17.91 | Inputs2d 6h fresh | WhyDuration stress: where long yields sit and how violently they moved. Raw 76.1, effective 76.1 at confidence 1.00. Drivers: real_yield_level 91, long_yield_level 91, duration_drawdown 61. |
credit raises stress | Weight0.18 | Score85.8 | Points+15.14 | Inputs8d 6h fresh | WhyThe cost of corporate borrowing and the tightness of conditions. Raw 85.8, effective 85.8 at confidence 1.00. Drivers: spread_level 99, spread_impulse 90, financial_conditions 84. |
volatility raises stress | Weight0.18 | Score81.9 | Points+14.45 | Inputs2d 6h fresh | WhyImplied volatility: its level and the speed of its repricing. Raw 81.9, effective 81.9 at confidence 1.00. Drivers: implied_vol_impulse 88, implied_vol_level 76. |
energy_inflation raises stress | Weight0.18 | Score61.4 | Points+10.84 | Inputs4d 6h fresh | WhyThe energy-to-inflation impulse: crude and market-implied inflation. Raw 61.4, effective 61.4 at confidence 1.00. Drivers: crude_level 82, breakeven_impulse 72, breakeven_level 64. |
Why the Buy Window reads 26.9
A separate question with separate components. A severe selloff can be an opportunity; a milder one can still be structurally worsening.
| Component | Weight | Score | Points | Inputs | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
rates_relief improves the setup | Weight0.20 | Score61.2 | Points+12.25 | Inputs2d 6h fresh | WhyYield pressure rolling over rather than building. Raw 61.2, effective 61.2 at confidence 1.00. Drivers: real_yield_easing 95, long_yield_easing 39. |
energy_relief improves the setup | Weight0.15 | Score49.4 | Points+7.40 | Inputs4d 6h fresh | WhyThe inflation impulse fading rather than accelerating. Raw 49.4, effective 49.4 at confidence 1.00. Drivers: breakeven_easing 28, crude_easing 64. |
equity_drawdown improves the setup | Weight0.25 | Score14.5 | Points+3.62 | Inputs3d 6h fresh | WhyHow far the broad index has already been marked down. Raw 14.5, effective 14.5 at confidence 1.00. Drivers: drawdown_252d 5, drawdown_60d 21. |
volatility_reset improves the setup | Weight0.20 | Score11.8 | Points+2.36 | Inputs2d 6h fresh | WhyElevated implied volatility that has started to come down. Raw 11.8, effective 11.8 at confidence 1.00. Drivers: elevated_and_falling 12. |
History
Published snapshots under model version rules_v0.1.0. History is scoped to one version because two versions scoring the same instant are two different answers, and interleaving them would chart a change in the model as a change in the market.
MSI — higher is more risk-hostileBWS — higher is a better setup for adding risknewest 168 of 1121 snapshots
Data supply
Current operational state of each series, overwritten on every run. It carries no point-in-time guarantee and is not an input to any score (ADR-0009) — it says whether data is arriving now, not how old a component's inputs were when this snapshot was scored. That is a separate record, and it is the Inputs column of the two tables above. The two can disagree without either being wrong.
| Series | Data lag | Last observation | Since success | Supply |
|---|---|---|---|---|
commodity.brent_crude via fred · fresh under 5d | Data lag4d 7h | Last observation2026-10-20 00:00Z | Since success2h 24m | Supplyfresh |
credit.hy_etf via massive · fresh under 5d | Data lag1d 7h | Last observation2026-10-23 00:00Z | Since success2h 24m | Supplyfresh |
credit.hy_oas via fred · fresh under 5d | Data lag2d 7h | Last observation2026-10-22 00:00Z | Since success2h 24m | Supplyfresh |
credit.ig_etf via massive · fresh under 5d | Data lag1d 7h | Last observation2026-10-23 00:00Z | Since success2h 24m | Supplyfresh |
equity.us_large_cap via fred · fresh under 5d | Data lag3d 7h | Last observation2026-10-21 00:00Z | Since success2h 24m | Supplyfresh |
equity.us_tech via fred · fresh under 5d | Data lag1d 7h | Last observation2026-10-23 00:00Z | Since success2h 24m | Supplyfresh |
macro.breakeven_10y via fred · fresh under 5d | Data lag1d 7h | Last observation2026-10-23 00:00Z | Since success2h 24m | Supplyfresh |
macro.nfci via fred · fresh under 14d | Data lag8d 7h | Last observation2026-10-16 00:00Z | Since success24m | Supplyfresh |
rates.real_10y via fred · fresh under 5d | Data lag2d 7h | Last observation2026-10-22 00:00Z | Since success2h 24m | Supplyfresh |
rates.ust_10y via fred · fresh under 5d | Data lag2d 7h | Last observation2026-10-22 00:00Z | Since success2h 24m | Supplyfresh |
rates.ust_10y via treasury · fresh under 5d | Data lag1d 7h | Last observation2026-10-23 00:00Z | Since success2h 24m | Supplyfresh |
rates.ust_2y via treasury · fresh under 5d | Data lag1d 7h | Last observation2026-10-23 00:00Z | Since success2h 24m | Supplyfresh |
rates.ust_3m via treasury · fresh under 5d | Data lag1d 7h | Last observation2026-10-23 00:00Z | Since success2h 24m | Supplyfresh |
rates.ust_long_etf via massive · fresh under 5d | Data lag1d 7h | Last observation2026-10-23 00:00Z | Since success2h 24m | Supplyfresh |
vol.vix via fred · fresh under 5d | Data lag2d 7h | Last observation2026-10-22 00:00Z | Since success2h 24m | Supplyfresh |